THE GLORIA SHEPARD TEAM | COMPASS
A Look Nationally about Why Home Prices Aren’t Declining
A message from the Gloria Shepard Team at Compass · September 2026
If you’ve been following the national real estate headlines, you’ve probably noticed a contradiction.
Buyer demand is softer. Affordability is the tightest it has been in a generation. And yet home prices, nationally, have barely moved. No surge, no decline — just a long, flat plateau.
Housing data analyst and Chief Economist for Compass, Mike Simonsen, recently walked through exactly why this is happening, and his explanation is worth sharing. His phrase for it is “downside stickiness” — and once you read it, the current market makes a great deal more sense.
“Downside stickiness”
Why softer demand hasn’t translated into sharply falling home prices.
Why This Is Not 2008
The instinct to compare today’s market to the last downturn is understandable, but the two cycles are built on entirely different foundations.
In 2008, the market was propped up by credit. Easy loans, small or no down payments, and a great deal of debt that never should have been written. When prices faltered, homeowners had no cushion, and forced selling turned a correction into a downhill slide.
Today’s market is supported by equity, not debt. Lending standards have been tight for well over a decade, and the typical homeowner is sitting on substantial gains built up over many years. That single difference changes everything about how the market behaves when demand cools.
The Numbers Behind the Plateau
Nationally, the median list price is holding around $449,000, and prices have stayed inside a broad, flat range for nearly four years. That is a remarkable stretch of stability given how much has changed in interest rates and affordability over the same period.
$449,000
Nationally, the median list price is holding around $449,000.
Here’s why: sellers with strong equity and low fixed-rate mortgages are under no pressure to sell. If the market doesn’t support their price, they simply wait or decide it’s not the right time to sell. Prices tend to fall when owners need to sell and demand softens. Right now, very few do.
What Is Shifting
None of this means the market is frozen, and Simonsen is careful not to overstate the calm. There are three signals worth watching:
- Inventory is slowly increasing. More homes are sitting on the market longer, which gradually tilts negotiating power toward buyers. This is true for all segments of the market.
- Price reductions are rising. A growing share (42%) of listings are adjusting price after coming to market, usually a sign that initial pricing was too ambitious for the market rather than that values are falling.
- Pending sales recently dipped slightly below last year. Momentum has softened at the margin, even if it hasn’t reversed.
42%
A growing share of listings are adjusting price after coming to market.
Taken together, these point to a market that is softening, not breaking. According to Simonsen’s analysis, a meaningful move in home prices, up or down, would most likely require a major catalyst, and the most obvious one is a significant shift in mortgage rates.
“A market that is softening, not breaking.”
What This Means in San Diego
We see this dynamic play out every week in communities like Santaluz, Rancho Santa Fe, La Jolla, and Del Mar. Our sellers are, almost without exception, equity-flush and unhurried. That means well-priced, well-presented homes still command strong attention but overpriced homes sit, and the price-reduction data clearly tells that story.
For sellers: You have some time on your side, but the market is rewarding accuracy over aspiration. Pricing correctly on day one absolutely matters, because the pool of buyers is smaller and more discerning than it was two or three years ago.
For buyers: Rising inventory and price reductions are opening a window that didn’t exist last spring. You’re likely to find the market offers more negotiability than it has in years. However, it is unlikely you will find a “deal” in the crash sense. That catalyst isn’t here today but you may find sellers more willing to negotiate on terms, timing, and price than they’ve been in years.
A Note From Our Team
Markets like this one reward preparation and patience over prediction. If you’d like to have a conversation about what the current environment means for your home, whether you’re thinking about selling in the next year, watching for the right buying opportunity, or simply curious about your home’s value, we’re always here to talk and help.
You can reach us any time at (619) 417-5564 or gloria@gshepardhomes.com.
Warmly,
The Gloria Shepard Team | Compass
About Gloria Shepard
With more than two decades of experience in Santaluz, Gloria Shepard brings deep community knowledge, established relationships, and a highly personalized approach to buying and selling luxury real estate throughout Santaluz, Black Mountain Ranch, and North County San Diego.
Market commentary based on national housing data as presented by Mike Simonsen, September 2026. All figures are for informational purposes and do not constitute a guarantee of value or outcome.
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