NOVEMBER 2026 | REAL ESTATE MARKET INSIGHTS
Do Elections Move the Housing Market? What 100 Years of History Shows
A market perspective from the Gloria Shepard Team at Compass
The votes are in, and many of our clients are asking the same thing: what does a new balance of power in Washington mean for my home's value, and for my plans to buy or sell?
The short answer from a century of data: elections have had far less effect on home prices than most people expect. Home values have risen under Republican and Democratic presidents, under unified and divided governments, and in the final years of outgoing administrations. What has moved the housing market, again and again, is interest rates, credit conditions, jobs and local supply and demand.
What History Shows
Across every combination of party control, both stocks and home values have trended upward over time. Research covering decades of data finds the S&P 500 has posted a positive average annual return under unified government, split Congress, and a president facing an opposition Congress alike (Motley Fool). Returns do vary by setup, with averages ranging from roughly 7% to 11% a year depending on who controls what (Kiplinger).
One of the narrowest tests is the final two years of a term-limited president whose party has lost both chambers of Congress. That has happened five times in the past 100 years, under presidents of both parties:
| Years | Setup | S&P 500 (2-yr, approx.) |
National Home Prices (approx.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015–2016 | Democratic president, Republican Congress | +9% | Up about 5% a year |
| 2007–2008 | Republican president, Democratic Congress | −36% | Down about 20% total |
| 1999–2000 | Democratic president, Republican Congress | +7% | Up about 6–9% a year |
| 1987–1988 | Republican president, Democratic Congress | +15% | Up about 6% a year |
| 1959–1960 | Republican president, Democratic Congress | +5% | Roughly flat |
Home prices rose or held steady in four of the five periods. Five cases is far too few to predict anything, but the pattern matches the broader record: politics was rarely the deciding factor.
The Two Exceptions, and Why They Happened
The weak stretches in the table came from economic events, not election results.
2000: The dot-com stock bubble burst. Stocks fell, yet home prices kept climbing as falling interest rates supported buyers.
2007–2008: Loose lending and risky mortgages had inflated home prices for years. When those loans began to fail, prices fell nationwide and the financial crisis followed. That collapse was building long before the 2006 midterms.
In both cases, the cause was credit and valuations. The same lesson applies today: watch the economy, not the headlines about who won.
What Actually Drives Home Prices
Four forces have mattered far more than any election:
01. Mortgage Rates
Small rate changes shift monthly payments and buying power. Rates follow inflation and Federal Reserve policy more than who controls Congress.
02. Inventory
How many homes are for sale, and how quickly new ones are built, sets the balance between buyers and sellers.
03. Jobs and Incomes
Steady local employment keeps buyers in the market and owners in their homes.
04. Local Demand
Schools, commute times, new employers and migration patterns can make one neighborhood rise while another stalls.
Policy can nudge these over time, through tax rules or housing programs, but the effects tend to be gradual and are often outweighed by the economy.
What's Happening in Santaluz
October 2025 vs. October 2026
Here's where our local market stands as of October 2026:
| Measure | October 2026 | October 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Median Sale Price | $3,140,000 | $2,412,500 |
| Homes for Sale (Inventory) | 11 | 12 |
| Months of Supply | 3 | 3.8 |
| Median Days on Market | 34 | 33 |
| Sale-to-List Price Ratio | 85.7% | 94% |
| 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate | 6.5% (Jumbo) | 7.5% (Jumbo) |
Market figures supplied in the original report. Please verify against current MLS and lender data before publication.
What This Means for You
With the election behind us, the best decisions come from your own goals and the numbers in your market.
If You're Buying
Focus on what you can afford at today's rates, get pre-approved, and watch local inventory. Waiting for a political signal rarely pays off.
If You're Selling
Pricing, presentation and timing within the local season matter far more than national news. Know your competition before you list.
If You're a Homeowner
Over time, home values have grown through every kind of government. Review your equity and your plans, and make changes based on your life, not the news cycle.
Every market and every situation is different. If you'd like to talk through what the latest numbers mean for your home or your next move, the Gloria Shepard Team is here to help.
Warmly,
The Gloria Shepard Team | Compass
About Gloria Shepard
With more than two decades of experience in Santaluz, Gloria Shepard brings deep community knowledge, established relationships, and a highly personalized approach to buying and selling luxury real estate throughout Santaluz, Black Mountain Ranch, and North County San Diego.
Gloria Silveyra-Shepard
(619) 417-5564
gloria@gshepardhomes.com
Cory Shepard
(619) 889-8498
cory@cshepardhomes.com
Sources
- Kiplinger: How Presidential Elections Affect the Stock Market
- Motley Fool: What History Says About Stocks and Party Control
- Historical S&P 500 annual returns
- S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index (approximate figures)
This article is for general information only and is not financial, legal or tax advice. Historical figures are approximate, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
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