Introducing the 2026 Housing Market Outlook

Our Housing Market Outlook is here to help you navigate a market that isn’t always easy to interpret.

A New Housing Market Era Emerges in 2026

2026 marks a step toward “normal.” After four years of pandemic-driven extremes — including frozen migration, volatile mortgage rates, major affordability challenges, and uneven supply across regions — the U.S. housing market enters a new era.

In this next phase, home sales are positioned to grow again and affordability starts to improve as home prices level out and mortgage rates come down. Many of the unusual dynamics of the early 2020s are beginning to fade: mobility is slowly picking up, inventory is normalizing in many regions, and buyers and sellers are resetting their expectations after years of dramatic changes.

Four Signals to Watch in 2026

Inventory

Nationally, buyers could benefit from 10% growth in the number of homes coming to market, bringing more options and improved affordability.

Home Prices

Prices are likely to rise modestly by 0.5%, while incomes grow faster — conditions that would improve affordability.

Mortgage Rates

Rates are expected to trade in a range of 5.9%–6.9%, with an average of about 6.4% for the year, offering buyers a more favorable financing environment.

Home Sales

Home sales could reach 4.25 million, a 5% increase from 2025, as lowering rates and growing inventory draw more buyers back to the market.

A new era of the housing market is on the horizon, defined by improving affordability, increasing home sales, and a shift toward more stable conditions.

For anyone planning a move, clear momentum across key housing metrics signals greater opportunities next year and beyond. 

As your local market expert, I’ll help you navigate your next move with confidence in 2026.

Learn more in the 2026 Housing Market Outlook.

This report is for informational purposes only and is based on internal Compass data and information compiled by Altos Research. It is not intended as financial, legal, or real estate advice. Any market forecasts or predictions discussed are speculative, opinions of the authors only, and are subject to change. Actual results may differ. Consumers should seek their own professional advice before making decisions. Compass disclaims any liability for reliance on this content.